Only one variant has conversions, and the other shows zero

Created by Donald Ng, Modified on Sun, 4 Jan at 11:56 PM by Donald Ng

When running an experiment, it is common to see conversions appear on only one variant, especially when total conversions are very low.


This is expected behavior and usually caused by normal result variation.


What variance means (in simple terms)

Variance means that when numbers are small, results can look uneven just by chance.

If only a few conversions have happened, it is completely normal for:

  • All conversions to land on one variant

  • Another variant to show zero conversions

  • Results to look “wrong” or unbalanced early on

This does not mean anything is broken.


Why single-digit conversions are especially misleading

When conversions are in the single digits, each individual conversion has a large impact on the results.


For example:

  • With 5-10 conversions total, it is very easy for all of them to land on one variant

  • This can happen even if both variants are performing the same


As more conversions happen, results usually begin to balance out based on real performance.


What this does not indicate

Seeing zero conversions on a variant does not mean:

  • The variant is not receiving traffic

  • The conversion goal is not firing

  • Tracking is misconfigured


If visitors are reaching the conversion page, tracking is working.


What to do next

  • Allow the experiment to run longer and collect more data

  • Avoid judging results based on a small number of conversions

  • Re-check results once conversions are no longer in single digits


Important notes

Early experiment results are often noisy and unstable. It is normal for one variant to temporarily show all or none of the conversions when traffic and conversions are low.

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